A Bass Diffusion Model of Suicide in the Philippines
Keywords:
Suicide, suicide contagion, Bass diffusion model, vulnerable individuals
Abstract
A growing number of researches have demonstrated that exposure to suicide throughtelevision or newspaper leads to increased suicide risk in vulnerable individuals. Highlypublicized celebrity suicides are often rationalized and sensationalized by the media. Thisphenomenon may result in an imitative, contagious suicide effect. This study uses theBass diffusion model to forecast suicide deaths in the Philippines from 2020 to 2025 basedon suicide data by the World Health Organization (WHO) from 2000 to 2017.The Bassmodel assumes that exposure to suicide (media, social media, verbal exchange of suicidestories) increases suicide deaths based on the suicide contagion hypothesis. The modeldepicts the successive increases in suicide deaths across Filipino age groups and predictsa suicide diffusion process. The resulting Bass model also underscores the necessity of asuicide contagion intervention plan to address the country’s expected increase of suicide.References
Bandura, A. (1977). Self-efficacy: Toward a
unifying theory of behavioral change.
Psychological Review, 84(2), 191-215.
Berman, A. L. (1988). Fictional depiction of
suicide in television films and imitation
effects. American Journal of Psychiatry, 145,
982-986.
Blood, R. W., & Pirkis, J. (2001). Suicide and the
media. Part III: Theoretical issues. Crisis,
22(4), 163-169.
Carstensen, L.L., Turan, B., Scheibe, S., Ram,
N., Ersner-Hershfield, H., Samanez-Larkin,
G.R., Brooks, K.P., & Nesselroade, J.R.
(2011). Emotional experience improves
with age: Evidence based on over 10 years
of experience sampling. Psychol Aging,
26(1), 21- 33.
Conejero, I., Olié, E., Courtet, P., & Calati,
R. (2018). Suicide in older adults: Current
perspectives. Clinical Interventions in Aging,
13, 691–699. https://doi.org/10.2147/CIA.
S130670
Colhoun, C. (2016). Suicide contagion: Is the
media placing the public at risk? An analysis
of suicide reporting in New Zealand
newspapers. Unpublished Dissertation.
Massey University, Palmerston North,
New Zealand.
Gould, M., Jamieson, P., Romer, D. (2003).
Media contagion and suicide among
the young. American Behavioral
Scientist, 46(9), 1269-1284. https://doi.
org/10.1177/0002764202250670
Gould, M., & Lake, A.M. (2013). The contagion
of suicidal behaviour. National Academies
Press (US). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Gould, M. S., Wallenstein, S., Kleinman, M.,
O’Carroll, P., & Mercy, J. (1990). Suicide
clusters: An examination of age-specific
effects. American Journal of Public Health,
80(1), 211-212.
Hazell, P. (1993). Adolescent suicide clusters:
Evidence, mechanisms, and prevention.
Australia and New Zealand Journal of
Psychiatry, 30(1), 653-665.
Joiner, T. E. Jr. (2003). Contagion of suicidal
symptoms as a function of assertive
relating and shared relationship stress in
college roommates. Journal of Adolescence,
26, 495-504.
Kessler, R.C., Bossarte, R.M., Luedtke, A.,
et al. (2020). Suicide prediction models:
A critical review of recent research with
recommendations for the way forward.
Mol Psychiatry, 25, 168–179. https://doi.
org/10.1038/s41380-019-0531-0
Krug, E. G., Dahlberg, L. L., Mercy, J. A., Zwi,
A. B., & Lozano, R. (Eds.). (2002). World
Report on Violence and Health. Geneva:
World Health Organization.
Levi-Belz, Y., Gvion, Y., Apter, A. (2019).
The psychology of suicide: From research
understandings to intervention and
treatment. Frontiers in Psychology. https://
doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00214
Maureal, Z.L, Dumandan, M.S., Lapates, J., &
Bicar, V.K. (2020). Adapted Bass diffusion
model for the spread of COVID-19 in the
Philippines: Implications to interventions
and flattening the curve. International
Journal of Innovation, Creativity and Change, 14 (3), 1418-1437.
Mercy, J.A., Kresnow, M., O’Carroll, P.W., Lee, R.
K., Powell, K. E., Potter, L. B., et al. (2001). Is
suicide contagious? A study of the relation
between exposure to suicidal behaviour of
others and nearly lethal suicide attempts.
American Journal of Epidemiology, 154(2),
120-127.
National Institute of Mental Health. (2015).
Suicide. https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/
statistics/suicide#part_2560
O’Carroll, P. W., & Potter, L. B. (1994). Suicide
contagion and the reporting of suicide.
O’Connor R.C., & Nock, M.K. (2014). The
psychology of suicidal behaviour. Lancet
Psychiatry, 1(1), 73–85. doi: 10.1016/
S2215-0366(14)70222-6
Phillips, D. P., & Carstensen, L. L. (1986).
Clustering of teenage suicides after
television news stories about suicide. New
England Medical Journal, 5(11), 685-689.
Phillips, D. P., & Carstensen, L. L. (1988).
The effect of suicide stories on various
demographic groups, 1968-1985. Suicide
and Life-Threatening Behaviour, 18, 100-
114.
Pirkis, J. E., Blood, R. W., Beautrais, A., Burgess,
P., & Skehan, J. (2006). Media guidelines on
the reporting of suicide. Crisis, 27(2), 82-87.
Stack, S. (2003). Media coverage as a risk factor
for suicide. Journal of Epidemiology and
Community Health, 57(4), 238-240.
Stack, S. (1987), The Sociological Study of
Suicide: Methodological Issues. Suicide
and Life-Threatening Behavior, 17: 133-
150. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1943-
278X.1987.tb01026.x
Suicide Prevention Center. (2020). Adults
Ages 26 to 55 Years. https://www.sprc.org/
populations/adults-26-55
9
Tarde, G. (1903). The laws of imitation. New
York: Henry Holt and Company
Van Orden, K. A., & Conwell, Y. (2016). Issues
in research on aging and suicide. Aging &
Mental Health, 20(2), 240–251. https://doi.
org/10.1080/13607863.2015.1065791
Velting, D. M., & Gould, M. (1997). Suicide
contagion. In R. Maris, S. Canetto, & M.
M. Silverman (Eds.), Annual Review of
Suicidology, 96 -136. New York: Guilford.
Wasserman, I. M. (1984). Imitation and
suicide: A re-examination of the Werther
effect. American Sociological Review, 49(3),
427-436.
World Health Organisation. (2009). World
suicide report. Preventing suicide: A
global imperative. Luxemburg: WHO.
unifying theory of behavioral change.
Psychological Review, 84(2), 191-215.
Berman, A. L. (1988). Fictional depiction of
suicide in television films and imitation
effects. American Journal of Psychiatry, 145,
982-986.
Blood, R. W., & Pirkis, J. (2001). Suicide and the
media. Part III: Theoretical issues. Crisis,
22(4), 163-169.
Carstensen, L.L., Turan, B., Scheibe, S., Ram,
N., Ersner-Hershfield, H., Samanez-Larkin,
G.R., Brooks, K.P., & Nesselroade, J.R.
(2011). Emotional experience improves
with age: Evidence based on over 10 years
of experience sampling. Psychol Aging,
26(1), 21- 33.
Conejero, I., Olié, E., Courtet, P., & Calati,
R. (2018). Suicide in older adults: Current
perspectives. Clinical Interventions in Aging,
13, 691–699. https://doi.org/10.2147/CIA.
S130670
Colhoun, C. (2016). Suicide contagion: Is the
media placing the public at risk? An analysis
of suicide reporting in New Zealand
newspapers. Unpublished Dissertation.
Massey University, Palmerston North,
New Zealand.
Gould, M., Jamieson, P., Romer, D. (2003).
Media contagion and suicide among
the young. American Behavioral
Scientist, 46(9), 1269-1284. https://doi.
org/10.1177/0002764202250670
Gould, M., & Lake, A.M. (2013). The contagion
of suicidal behaviour. National Academies
Press (US). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Gould, M. S., Wallenstein, S., Kleinman, M.,
O’Carroll, P., & Mercy, J. (1990). Suicide
clusters: An examination of age-specific
effects. American Journal of Public Health,
80(1), 211-212.
Hazell, P. (1993). Adolescent suicide clusters:
Evidence, mechanisms, and prevention.
Australia and New Zealand Journal of
Psychiatry, 30(1), 653-665.
Joiner, T. E. Jr. (2003). Contagion of suicidal
symptoms as a function of assertive
relating and shared relationship stress in
college roommates. Journal of Adolescence,
26, 495-504.
Kessler, R.C., Bossarte, R.M., Luedtke, A.,
et al. (2020). Suicide prediction models:
A critical review of recent research with
recommendations for the way forward.
Mol Psychiatry, 25, 168–179. https://doi.
org/10.1038/s41380-019-0531-0
Krug, E. G., Dahlberg, L. L., Mercy, J. A., Zwi,
A. B., & Lozano, R. (Eds.). (2002). World
Report on Violence and Health. Geneva:
World Health Organization.
Levi-Belz, Y., Gvion, Y., Apter, A. (2019).
The psychology of suicide: From research
understandings to intervention and
treatment. Frontiers in Psychology. https://
doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2019.00214
Maureal, Z.L, Dumandan, M.S., Lapates, J., &
Bicar, V.K. (2020). Adapted Bass diffusion
model for the spread of COVID-19 in the
Philippines: Implications to interventions
and flattening the curve. International
Journal of Innovation, Creativity and Change, 14 (3), 1418-1437.
Mercy, J.A., Kresnow, M., O’Carroll, P.W., Lee, R.
K., Powell, K. E., Potter, L. B., et al. (2001). Is
suicide contagious? A study of the relation
between exposure to suicidal behaviour of
others and nearly lethal suicide attempts.
American Journal of Epidemiology, 154(2),
120-127.
National Institute of Mental Health. (2015).
Suicide. https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/
statistics/suicide#part_2560
O’Carroll, P. W., & Potter, L. B. (1994). Suicide
contagion and the reporting of suicide.
O’Connor R.C., & Nock, M.K. (2014). The
psychology of suicidal behaviour. Lancet
Psychiatry, 1(1), 73–85. doi: 10.1016/
S2215-0366(14)70222-6
Phillips, D. P., & Carstensen, L. L. (1986).
Clustering of teenage suicides after
television news stories about suicide. New
England Medical Journal, 5(11), 685-689.
Phillips, D. P., & Carstensen, L. L. (1988).
The effect of suicide stories on various
demographic groups, 1968-1985. Suicide
and Life-Threatening Behaviour, 18, 100-
114.
Pirkis, J. E., Blood, R. W., Beautrais, A., Burgess,
P., & Skehan, J. (2006). Media guidelines on
the reporting of suicide. Crisis, 27(2), 82-87.
Stack, S. (2003). Media coverage as a risk factor
for suicide. Journal of Epidemiology and
Community Health, 57(4), 238-240.
Stack, S. (1987), The Sociological Study of
Suicide: Methodological Issues. Suicide
and Life-Threatening Behavior, 17: 133-
150. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1943-
278X.1987.tb01026.x
Suicide Prevention Center. (2020). Adults
Ages 26 to 55 Years. https://www.sprc.org/
populations/adults-26-55
9
Tarde, G. (1903). The laws of imitation. New
York: Henry Holt and Company
Van Orden, K. A., & Conwell, Y. (2016). Issues
in research on aging and suicide. Aging &
Mental Health, 20(2), 240–251. https://doi.
org/10.1080/13607863.2015.1065791
Velting, D. M., & Gould, M. (1997). Suicide
contagion. In R. Maris, S. Canetto, & M.
M. Silverman (Eds.), Annual Review of
Suicidology, 96 -136. New York: Guilford.
Wasserman, I. M. (1984). Imitation and
suicide: A re-examination of the Werther
effect. American Sociological Review, 49(3),
427-436.
World Health Organisation. (2009). World
suicide report. Preventing suicide: A
global imperative. Luxemburg: WHO.
Published
2021-12-31
Section
Articles
Copyright (c) 2021 Asia Pacific Journal of Social and Behavioral Sciences
Copyright holder is the Bukidnon State University.
